The pandemic has been a boon to sporting and outdoor goods companies, and this popularity is expected to continue into 2022 – and beyond. But production and shipping delays that continue to wreak havoc in the supply chain could hurt sales this holiday season.

It was the screening of Matt Powell, NPD Group’s vice president and senior industry advisor, who presented his outlook on Wednesday at the Sports & Fitness Industry Association’s Trends & Insights 2021 conference.

“Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday are going to disappoint,” said Powell, pointing to “low inventory” which “will dampen the promotional plans of most retailers.” So consumers who have ignored the warnings and are waiting to shop for the holidays or looking for bargains may find themselves with little choice.

For the fourth quarter, Powell expects athletic footwear to increase in the mid single-digit range and athletic wear to increase in the high single-digit digits with strength in categories such as footwear-specific products. trails and hiking. Even so, he only predicts that it will be “a good vacation, not a good vacation, for the sports industry.”

While holiday sales may be affected, Powell expects the benefits consumers have received from exercise and taking care of their health in recent months will become permanent habits. And social distancing activities such as running, hiking, golfing, tennis and cycling will continue to be “the stars of the industry,” Powell said, as some consumers are still hesitant to be there. inside and in the crowd.

He also warned brands and retailers not to expand too much next year. “I am pessimistic about the outlook for 2022,” he said. “Everyone makes money,” but sourcing now could prove disastrous later. “Chasing the last sale is always the least profitable,” said Powell.

Earlier in the SFIA event, McKinsey & Co. partner Alexander Thiel provided an overview of the sporting goods industry and the key trends that are expected to impact business in the future – and he was more optimistic than Powell.

He said the global sports market is expected to reach $ 395 billion by 2025, with annual growth of 9%. The engine of these gains will be China, with annual growth of 13.7% and the United States with annual growth of 9%.

He said sportswear has been the fastest growing category this year as people continue to be active. As a result, well-funded brands and retailers, niche brands with a distinct point of view, and fashion brands that have entered the market are expected to be the winners. Those who are too slow to change, depend on offline sales, and have limited capital won’t fare as well.

For all businesses, Thiel said they need to be aware of the change in consumer behavior. Less than 30% say they have returned to the exercise routines they had before the pandemic and although that may change next year, many still choose to work out at home or outside and use digital options rather than physical gyms to guide them. their training.

Another consumer trend that will impact businesses is the growing popularity of live streaming, which has been found to increase digital sales. The trend started in China and is rapidly spreading across the world, he said. “It will be arriving in the United States in no time, so get ready for it. “

Sustainability will also continue to gain in importance, he predicted, with 65% of consumers saying they plan to buy high-quality, durable items, with 57% saying they are open to repairing fashion items and 71% expecting to extend product life. elements.

As for retail, Thiel said direct-to-consumer sales accounted for 65% of total sportswear sales last spring, but that number has fallen to 44% this year with the stores reopening. He expects this figure to stabilize around that percentage. “Brick and mortar have an important role to play, they are here to stay,” he said, predicting a growth rate of around 5% for physical stores.

He also looked at supply chain issues, which include a slowdown in production, especially in China due to a power shortage and lockdowns in Vietnam. While these issues are not supposed to be resolved quickly, he said the “transportation bottleneck” and soaring shipping prices are expected to improve by the first quarter of next year.

Other high-profile executives who attended the SFIA event included New Balance President and CEO Joe Preston, who said he remains “bullish on the long-term trends for footwear and clothing “as consumers continue to embrace their new sports of running and walking. for fitness. “This is a very positive trend for the industry in general,” he said.

But in addition to offering products for these activities, Preston said New Balance is also tackling the broader issue of mental health, highlighting the company’s new content series, Beyond the Run, which aims to communicate. the wellness benefits of staying active.

In another session, Joe Dudy, president of Wilson Sporting Goods and Jim Gerson, president of Speedo USA, were also optimistic about the future as participation in golf, tennis and swimming, among other sports, continues to increase.

Dudy said that in addition to the primary customer, consumers who are less concerned with their scores and more focused on fun should also present an opportunity for brands and retailers. “This should increase the total market,” he said.