NJ’s first widespread freeze of the season is expected Tuesday night
The days of jackets have returned to New Jersey. Although the next three days won’t be the coldest of the season so far (thanks to the mess of “Ian’s leftovers” in early October), it will be unusually cool for the season. Feeling November, actually. And, as overnight low temperatures dip into the 30s, we will face our first widespread freeze/freeze of the season on Tuesday evening.
Temperatures will moderate by the weekend. And the chances of rain will be very limited for the next week or two.
The low pressure area responsible for Monday’s cold front is still rotating over the Great Lakes. So we still have a few remaining clouds sitting over New Jersey to start Tuesday. Based on radar trends and our newly arrived dry air, the likelihood of advancing raindrops is very low. The sun will come out from late morning until early afternoon.
But we’re definitely back into “jacket weather” on Tuesday, with morning lows mostly in the 40s and afternoon highs only expected to hit the mid-50s. 10 degrees colder than Tuesday. And about 10 degrees below normal for mid-October.
Let’s talk about frost. These little ice crystals that form on the grass, the roofs of houses and cars on particularly cold mornings. It doesn’t have to be “below freezing” (
This is exactly what will happen from Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Most low temperatures will dip into the 30s. Notable exceptions: Downtowns and coastal areas will miss the potential for freezing, with lows in the lower 40s.
The first frost / frost of the season is of crucial importance for gardeners and farmers. Otherwise, there is nothing inherently “dangerous” about temperatures in the 30s.
There are Frost warnings and Frost Notice posted for most of New Jersey. Including:
—Frost warning… counties of Hunterdon, Morris and Somerset. The temperature can drop to 32 degrees overnight.
—Frost warning… Interior Atlantic, West Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, West Essex, Gloucester, Mercer, Middlesex, Inland Monmouth, Inland Ocean, Passaic, Salem and the western counties of the Union. The temperature can drop to 37 degrees overnight.
—No warning/warning… Sussex and Warren counties. The temperature can drop to 32 degrees overnight. It has already happened this season – the growing season is already over.
—No warning/warning… Coastal Atlantic, East Bergen, Cape May, East Essex, Hudson, Coastal Monmouth, Coastal Ocean and Eastern Union Counties. Low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s will be too hot for frost to form.
Certainly cool. Bottom of the barrel of this cool stretch, actually.
Not only will the high temperatures only reach the low to mid-50s on Wednesday afternoon, but they will be windier. The slightest breeze will make you feel the fresh air even more.
Models paint plenty of sunshine for Wednesday, with the possibility of clouds in the afternoon. A few solutions favor a light shower around dinnertime – but I’ve opted for a dry forecast, given our very dry air mass.
Another widespread freeze looks likely Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.
We’re starting to get out of the cool hole, but you’ll still want a jacket or a sweater on Thursday.
Sunny, windy and mid 50s. That’s about it. In about a month, it would be considered a pleasant November day.
As I mentioned, temperatures will moderate towards the end of the week. Friday’s high temperatures will reach the lower 60s. (And I’m admittedly a little hesitant and conservative with the warm-up so far.)
Friday will be a partly sunny day, with additional cloud cover as a weak disturbance passes through our atmosphere. An isolated shower is possible during the day. But just enough to spit up a few hundredths of an inch of rain in places.
The weekend and beyond
Return of the sun and temperatures to 70 degrees for the start of the weekend. Pleasant weekends in the fall are simply wonderful, considering the number of outdoor activities that take place as Halloween approaches.
On Sunday, a stormy system coming from the southeast at least increase cloud cover. This will only have a slight effect on temperatures, so we should still end up near 70. The European pattern is putting rain on New Jersey starting Sunday afternoon. It’s a new development, and I’m not totally convinced – just something to watch for now.
If this chance of rain does not materialize, next week will be mild and calm. Our next chance for substantial and widespread rain would not be until late Next the week.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest real-time weather forecasts and updates.
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